Being scheduled for transfer to a different team might actually offer you some protection against being laid off.
There are now two teams which want you. When your position at your old team gets cut, there is already the decision for you to work on your new team. When your new positions gets cut, then your transfer gets canceled and you just stay where you are. You will only get laid off if both positions are cut while you are in the transfer process.
If you hear that your position might be threatened by downsizing layoffs but you want to stay with the company, then applying for an internal transfer to a different department is actually a pretty good survival strategy.
Nevertheless, you should still evaluate your options at other companies. Many companies in the software industry are unaffected by COVID-19 or even growing thanks to it. Further, in the past few months, many companies discovered that software development is a job which can be done perfectly fine 100% remote. So even positions in very far away places might now be a viable option to you.